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Global Pulse

What’s Behind the Declining Dollar?

The US dollar is still the world’s main reserve currency, but it has become weaker and more volatile over the past year. That matters for anyone holding US assets from outside the US. Since January 2025 it has fallen by about 10% against a broad basket of currencies, even though US growth and equity markets look strong. For foreign investors, this means a large part of the S&P 500’s 14% gain in dollar terms has been offset once returns are converted back into their home currency. Why the dollar is under pressure? Several factors are undermining confidence in the dollar, even though US growth and US equity markets still look strong.​​ The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair gave brief relief, because of his earlier hawkish reputation. But his current call for rate cuts, even with current inflation (2.8%) still above target (2%) and further fiscal stimulus coming, could add to concerns that US policy will weaken the currency over time. Even after its recent decline, the dollar is still overvalued on most measures. At the same time, foreign investors have limited alternatives as the dollar still dominates global trade invoicing, cross‑border banking, international debt and FX transactions. Practical implications for Global Investors and Corporates In short, the dollar is still the core funding and reserve currency, but it is becoming a riskier asset. Anyone managing capital across borders should treat US exposure as carrying higher political and currency risk than in the pre‑2020 period and adjust pricing, hedging and governance expectations accordingly. Source: The Economist (February 7th-13th 2026 edition)

Deal Strategy

Pre-Acquisition Value Creation Planning

The foundation of value creation in M&A begins before the deal closes: detailed 100-day plans developed before signing the purchase agreement. This pre-acquisition planning discipline enables faster integration execution and earlier realization of synergies. The Challenge: Most buyers focus on deal execution and financing, leaving post-merger integration planning to the post-close period. This approach wastes the critical first 100 days when organizational momentum and change readiness are highest. Real Deal Context: A SaaS company under private equity ownership needed to modernize its finance function and integrate multiple acquisitions. Rather than waiting until after closing, they embedded integration planning into their due diligence process. The team worked with external consultants to develop a comprehensive plan covering two critical areas: The implementation set up the client so that future acquisitions could be integrated easily, as the data model and processes were already in place. When they completed another acquisition shortly after, integration was seamless. The difference comes down to Day One readiness. In successful integrations, employees receive offer letters, benefits information, and system access on day one. HR and IT know exactly what needs to happen. Success Factors Action Steps: For your next acquisition, mandate that the 100-day plan be board-approved before signing the definitive agreement. If you had any areas that drove significant synergies on your last deal, we would love to know more.

AI Tools Spotlight

Kin – Your Private, Emotionally Intelligent Board of Advisors

In today’s high-pressure business environment, professionals need more than just productivity tools—they need trusted advisors who understand their unique challenges and help them navigate complex decisions with confidence. What The Tool Does? Kin is a privacy-first personal AI that functions as your board of advisors, offering five distinct AI experts—each specialized in different aspects of professional and personal life. Unlike generic AI assistants, Kin builds deep, long-term memory of your context, preferences, and goals while keeping all your data encrypted and stored locally on your device. These AI experts are: Why It Matters?: Unlike therapy or traditional coaching, Kin provides on-demand, confidential support whenever you need it, learning from every interaction to offer increasingly relevant insights. Kin’s local-first, encrypted approach means one can discuss sensitive business strategies, client situations, or personal challenges without worrying about data leaks or corporate surveillance. Explore the tool here.

Global Pulse

Energy, Utilities, and Mining Lead 2025 M&A Activity

The Canadian M&A market closed 2025 with exceptional strength, posting US$389.69 billion in total deal value—a US$118 billion increase over 2024. The story was megadeals over volume, with billion-dollar transactions accounting for US$321.9 billion and 78 deals compared to 54 in 2024. Energy, utilities, and mining dominated with US$195.48 billion—over half of total Canadian M&A. Utilities deals rose 82% year-over-year, energy jumped 257%, and mining increased 220%, reflecting intense demand for infrastructure supporting digital transformation and AI. Key Sector Highlights Challenges And Evolution Dealmakers navigate heightened regulatory scrutiny under amended Investment Canada Act provisions, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility through sophisticated structuring and new risk protections. Private credit has become a permanent M&A financing fixture, with hybrid structures—senior bank facilities plus private credit mezzanine—now standard in mid-market transactions. This evolution provides flexibility beyond traditional bank constraints and will continue driving 2026 activity as rates improve. Read the full article here.

Deal Strategy

Cracking the Code: Revenue and Margin Analysis in Financial Due Diligence

In our last issue, we explored working capital pegs and debt-like items. This issue examines revenue and margin quality—the bedrock of any Quality of Earnings (QoE) analysis and the primary driver of enterprise value. What This Means: Revenue and margin analysis evaluates not just how much a business earns, but how reliable, repeatable, and profitable those earnings really are. It dissects revenue drivers (price, volume, mix), customer and product economics, and cost structures to identify normalized earnings. The Challenge: Reported sales growth and margins often mask underlying fragility. Common issues include: Why It Matters (and How It Impacts Valuation): Valuation in deals is usually anchored on a multiple of normalized EBITDA. If revenue is less recurring than presented or margins are overstated, normalized EBITDA comes down—and every turn of the multiple compounds that value impact. Beyond the level of EBITDA, quality of revenue and margins affects the multiple itself: In effect, revenue and margin analysis influences both sides of the valuation equation: the normalized earnings, and the multiple (risk and sustainability). What Does the Financial Due Diligence Analyze?: A robust due diligence systematically dissects revenue and margins through the following lenses: Real Deal Context: During a sell-side due diligence for a commercial services company, our analysis revealed significant revenue and outsized margins from COVID-related supplies (hand sanitizers, disinfectants, etc.) during peak pandemic months. We adjusted reported revenue by removing these non-recurring sales and the associated margins from the normalized run-rate, thereby presenting a credible view of underlying performance. Deal Mechanisms to Address Revenue and Margin Issues: When revenue or margin risks are identified, common deal structuring mechanisms include: These tools allow parties to share risk around uncertain revenue and margin outcomes instead of walking away from the deal. Are You Prepared? If you are contemplating a transaction or want a pre-diligence ‘health check’ around your business, we would be happy to discuss.

AI Tools Spotlight

Gmail’s New AI Features

Gmail has introduced AI-powered tools designed to transform the world’s most popular email service into an intelligent personal assistant. Announced recently, these features leverage Google’s Gemini 3 AI model to enhance writing, organization, and inbox management for over 3 billion users worldwide. What The Tool Does? Why It Matters?: Email remains the cornerstone of professional communication, yet inbox overload and time-consuming email composition drain productivity across every industry. For professionals managing client relationships, coordinating projects, and maintaining consistent outreach, AI-powered email assistance can reclaim valuable hours while preserving the personal touch that builds trust and drives results. Did you know?: You can extend Gmail’s “Undo Send” feature up to 30 seconds in Settings > General > Undo Send. This gives you a half-minute safety net to catch typos, missing attachments, or wrong recipients before it’s too late!

Global Pulse

The ‘Frenemy’ Pact of the Decade: How Google Gemini Will Supersize Siri

For nearly two decades, Apple and Google have fought a bitter war for supremacy in mobile technology. But the immense pressure of the Generative AI arms race has forced an unthinkable truce. In a move that has fundamentally reshaped the mobile landscape, Apple has announced a partnership with Google to integrate the powerful Gemini model into iOS, macOS, and iPadOS, finally giving Siri the “brain transplant” it desperately needed. The Two Tier ‘Brain’ Coming To Your iPhone Why This Matters? The Bottom Line The smartphone landscape continues to evolve rapidly as the AI era takes hold. In this new reality, even the fiercest rivals have realized that collaboration may be the best way to keep pace with rapid technological change. Your iPhone is still designed in Cupertino, but its best new ideas will soon be powered by Mountain View.

Deal Strategy

Working Capital Pegs and Hidden “Debt‑Like” Items

In our last issue, we covered Quality of Earnings (QoE), including a Net Working Capital example. This issue dives deeper into working capital pegs and debt-like purchase price adjustments. What This Means: Net Working Capital (NWC) is a negotiated lever that directly influences purchase price through the working capital peg. The peg represents the normalized level of operating working capital a business needs, and is negotiated during the due diligence exercise using the most recent 12–24 months average to strip out seasonality and unusual items. Closing NWC is measured as of closing date using preliminary estimates, with final true-up adjustment 60-120 days post-close. In a cash‑free, debt‑free deal, NWC is usually defined as current assets (excluding cash) minus current liabilities (excluding debt and agreed debt‑like items), and deviations from the peg at closing drive dollar‑for‑dollar price adjustments.​ In summary, If closing NWC < peg, seller pays buyer (decreases purchase price). If closing NWC > peg, buyer pays seller (increases purchase price). The complexity lies in deciding what belongs in “operating” working capital versus what should be treated as debt‑like. Long‑dated or non‑operating obligations—such as environmental reserves, large warranty provisions, certain deferred revenue, or tax exposures—often behave more like debt in economic terms. If they remain inside working capital, they can distort the peg and blur accountability for future cash outflows; if reclassified as debt‑like, they reduce equity value or are settled by the seller outside the peg. Common Challenges: Real Deal Context: One of our clients acquired an industrial manufacturing company in a cash-free, debt-free transaction where the target carried historical environmental exposure and longer-term product warranties. During our due diligence, we identified sizeable environmental and warranty reserves in “accrued liabilities”—treated as current liabilities and included in historical NWC. Management noted these obligations would resolve over years but argued they were part of normal operations and embedded in historical financials. The buyer pushed to reclassify them as debt-like items for the EV-to-equity bridge. The parties agreed to: This preserved buyer protection and seller economics without renegotiating headline value. Suggested Success Factors: Share Your Perspectives: Have you encountered a situation where reclassifying an item between NWC and debt‑like materially changed the deal economics? How did you resolve it?

AI Tools Spotlight

Taplio

Taplio is an AI-powered LinkedIn growth and content creation platform designed for professionals, entrepreneurs, and businesses looking to build their personal brand and expand their network. The tool combines content generation, scheduling, analytics, and engagement automation into a single platform. What The Tool Does? Why It Matters?: LinkedIn remains the primary platform for B2B relationship building, yet most professionals struggle with consistent, high-quality content creation due to time constraints. In an industry where relationships drive deals and trust is currency, tools like Taplio enable professionals to maintain consistent thought leadership without sacrificing billable hours or deal execution focus. Explore the tool here.

Global Pulse

2026 Investment Outlook: An Year Demanding Active Decision-Making

As markets close out 2025 near record highs, the path forward demands selectivity. We cover actionable takeaways accross various asset classes below. The Equity Paradox U.S. equities trade at historical valuation extremes, concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks increasingly funding AI infrastructure through circular debt arrangements. Yet value stocks remain attractively priced versus historical averages, suggesting mean reversion potential as Fed rate cuts support broader growth. Emerging markets like Korea, Taiwan, and China offer tech exposure at compelling discounts. The Cash Trap Money market assets remain elevated despite declining yields as the Fed cuts rates. With yield curves steepening, bonds offer superior total return potential. The 2-5 year maturity sweet spot provides attractive income with capital appreciation upside, while global diversification across UK, Australia, and select emerging markets enhances risk-adjusted returns. Real Assets in Focus Gold has surged past $4,300/oz as central banks accumulate reserves faster than Treasuries, driven by geopolitical hedging and dollar diversification following the 2022 Russian asset seizure. While momentum has pushed prices beyond fundamentals, structural support remains intact. Broad commodity allocations capture AI infrastructure demand for copper, lithium, and energy while providing inflation protection. Credit Market Caution Despite tight credit spreads, stress signals are emerging in private lending markets. Investment funds focused on corporate loans are trading at 10% discounts to their underlying asset values, while struggling borrowers increasingly pay debt with more debt—pushing US shadow default rates to 6% from 2% in 2021. Opportunities remain in large-scale financings, consumer credit, and quality real estate lending. US Municipal Bond Opportunity US municipal bonds offer strong value for taxpayers, combining elevated yields with solid fundamentals backed by healthy state and local government balance sheets. These tax-advantaged bonds are positioned as top risk-adjusted opportunities for 2026. However, selectivity matters: avoid over-leveraged infrastructure projects from 2016-2021, and instead target private placement bonds offering investment-grade quality at attractive yields. The Bottom Line 2026 is expected to reward active management over passive positioning. Rotate from cash to quality bonds, tilt toward undervalued equities, size real assets carefully, and stay selective in credit.

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